Nigeria Energy Sector Review 2023 and 2024 Outlook

As 2023 beckoned, the focus of a large majority of Nigerians was on the upcoming 2023 major elections to the extent that the elections will effectively mark the end of the previous government administration at the state and federal level and officially usher in a new administration. Following the conclusion of the 2023 major elections, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerged as the presidential-elect and was officially inaugurated as the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. The emergence of the new administration has significantly impacted the Nigerian Energy Industry (the “NEI” or “Industry”)[1] given the introduction of a wide range of market, legal and regulatory changes prior to and post the change of administration. More significantly, a large number of Nigerians eagerly anticipated the position to be taken by the new administration more particularly on the removal of subsidy on the sale of petrol metro spirit in Nigeria. This is in addition to a number of critical events including but not limited to operationalisation of the Dangote oil refinery, the revitalisation of the moribund refineries, the enactment of a new electricity legislation, the decentralisation of the electricity markets, expected operationalisation of state electricity markets, implementation of the Nigerian Energy Transition Plan (ETP) and other important developments in the Industry.

The year 2023 was indeed defining for the Industry as the Industry experienced several market-defining transactions and events as well as legal and regulatory developments. This report only analyses (i) the important market developments and industry trends as well as the legal and regulatory updates in the oil and gas sector, power sector and the renewables sector (ii) the Nigerian ETP, emphasizing how the plan will be financed and ultimately fit into the broader global energy transition, climate change mitigation and decarbonisation objectives; and (iii) incorporates our outlook and expectations in the Industry for the year 2024. For convenience, the report is divided into three sections – (1) Oil and Gas Sector, covering both the upstream, midstream and downstream sector (2) Power Sector and (3) Renewables Industry. Each section discusses industry developments as well as legal and regulatory updates.

[1] Please note the Nigerian Energy Industry covers i) the oil and gas sector, ii) the power sector and iii) the renewables sector.

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